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Tips in Identifying Assumptions and Conclusions

For civil service exams, identifying assumptions and conclusions is a vital skill for evaluating arguments and reasoning logically. Here’s a streamlined guide tailored for such exams:

 


Identifying Conclusions


- Indicator Words: Look for words or phrases like "therefore," "thus," "so," "hence," "consequently," "as a result," and "it follows that." These words often introduce conclusions.
- Main Point: The conclusion is the main idea the author wants you to accept. It’s the statement that all other parts of the argument are supporting.
- Location Clues: Conclusions are often found at the beginning or the end of the argument, though not exclusively.
- Identify the Claim: Ask yourself, "What is the author trying to convince me of?" The answer to this question is typically the conclusion.

Identifying Assumptions


- Unstated Beliefs: Assumptions are often implicit. They are the underlying beliefs that connect the premises to the conclusion.
- Necessity Test: Ask, "What must be true for the conclusion to follow from the premises?" If the argument falls apart without this condition, it's an assumption.
- Filling Gaps: Look for logical gaps between the premises and the conclusion. Assumptions are the unstated premises that bridge these gaps.
- Reverse Check: Consider the negation of the conclusion. What implicit belief or condition would need to be false for the argument to be invalid? This belief is often the assumption.


Practical Steps for Exam Preparation


- Break Down Arguments: Practice breaking down sample arguments into premises and conclusions. Identify explicit premises first and then infer the implicit assumptions.
- Practice with Examples: Use past exam questions or practice questions to hone your skills. Analyze each argument to identify its conclusion and assumptions.
- Challenge Assumptions: Question the assumptions by considering alternative scenarios. Ask yourself if the argument would still hold true under different circumstances.
- Use Summary Techniques: Summarize the argument in your own words to understand the logical flow. This helps in identifying both the conclusion and the assumptions.



Example

 :


Consider an argument from a civil service exam question:

 



Argument: "Since the local government has increased the number of public parks, more families will move to the area. Therefore, the population of the town will increase."

 



Identifying the Conclusion: 

 - The conclusion here is "the population of the town will increase." This is the main claim the argument is trying to establish.



Identifying Assumptions:

 - An assumption is that families prefer to live in areas with more public parks.
 - Another assumption is that the increase in the number of families moving to the area will lead to an overall population increase (assuming no significant emigration or other factors).



Key Points to Remember


Stay Objective: Avoid letting personal beliefs influence your analysis. Focus on the argument as presented.
Regular Practice: Regularly practice with different types of arguments to become adept at quickly identifying conclusions and assumptions.
Understand Logical Connections: Be clear on how premises support conclusions and what unstated beliefs (assumptions) underpin these logical connections.

By mastering these techniques, you’ll improve your ability to identify assumptions and conclusions accurately, a critical skill for civil service exams.